Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x05e1…4c1e
weather · 1193 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,717 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,722 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,836
Realized−$1,722
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses913 / 337
Open positions154
Markets (closed)1250 / 1193
History coverage30d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 154 History 1250 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,789
7 days−$1,608
14 days−$1,756
30 days−$1,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $73 $77 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 85¢ 96¢ $68 $77 +$9 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 94¢ 94¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? No 82¢ 92¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? No 84¢ 100¢ $51 $60 +$9 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 88¢ 100¢ $53 $60 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 79¢ 100¢ $47 $60 +$13 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $53 $60 +$7 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $57 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? No 94¢ 97¢ $57 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 88¢ 96¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? No 88¢ 95¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 95¢ 99¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? No 93¢ 92¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? No 88¢ 93¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? No 89¢ 88¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 4? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 15? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 6? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 12? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 9? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 6? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 7? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 28 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 10? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 7? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 4? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 13? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% +$265
world 5% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $9 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $9 13m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $9 18m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $9 23m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 28m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 28m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $9 28m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 33m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 38m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 823 -23.7% -30.9% 67% 38% -22.7%
≤30d 1249 -16.6% -24.5% 73% 40% -18.3%
≤90d 1250 -16.6% -24.6% 73% 40% -18.3%
all 1250 -16.6% -24.6% 73% 40% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 40% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 17% -26.1%
15% -38.4% 0% -33.3%
20% -44.4% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,836.06 · official $2,835.68 (match) · 3500 history records