Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05df…882d world 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46,191 (+5%) realized +$46,637 · open −$446
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate62%86W / 53L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$5,665per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$24,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,737
7 days+$18,590
14 days+$38,027
30 days+$40,982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1,758
other 31% +$25,277
politics 9% −$952
economics 4% +$704
culture 1% +$495
crypto 1% +$19,339
tech 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 18% +1.2%
≤30d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 20% +3.8%
≤90d 70 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 26% -1.6%
all 139 -3.0% -12.3% 62% 20% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 20% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 9% -13.2%
15% -28.3% 7% -21.6%
20% -35.4% 4% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$4,761) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$711 vs −$266 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.33 per $1 lost it wins $4.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$24,897
Realized+$46,637
Unrealized−$446
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses86 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)139 / 151
History coverage361d
Avg bet$5,665
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $11,050 $10,977 −$73 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $9,740 $9,681 −$59 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 97¢ 91¢ $1,307 $1,233 −$74 (-6%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $1,367 $1,094 −$274 (-20%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 85¢ $893 $943 +$49 (+6%)
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $447 $458 +$11 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $311 $310 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $180 $153 −$27 (-15%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 70¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 72¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $321 −$32 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $25,585 +$779 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $3,227 +$291 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $145 −$45 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $78 −$20 -26%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $1,201 +$31 +3%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $119 +$4 +3%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 15 $516 +$192 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16,482 −$637 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $22,014 +$3,176 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $278 +$16 +6%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $345 +$5 +2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $550 −$46 -8%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 11 $86,305 +$14,885 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$7 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $221 −$16 -7%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $401 +$82 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $12,496 +$19,365 +155%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34,409 −$25 -0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $11,496 +$695 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 31 $989 +$10 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $5,364 +$5 +0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 31 $12 −$11 -90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $57 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $28,374 +$2,369 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $5,307 −$299 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1,867 −$67 -4%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 24 $3,401 −$645 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $900 −$15 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $11,116 +$857 +8%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $4,791 +$51 +1%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $69 +$28 +41%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $12,841 +$78 +1%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 16 $72 +$9 +12%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $75 +$24 +32%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $215 +$47 +22%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $24 −$7 -30%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $68 −$23 -34%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $12,351 +$538 +4%
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5,071 +$438 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $11 −$6 -52%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 72¢ $4 38m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 62¢ $50 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $411 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 52¢ $14 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 52¢ $25 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $12 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $40 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,307 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,122 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $156 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $66 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $21 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $300 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5,421 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,905 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $10,593 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,847 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,057 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $970 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $987 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3,056 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $3,268 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $8 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,308 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $970 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,896.67 · official $24,896.67 (match) · 2455 history records