Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x05df…894f sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$515 (-49%) realized −$514 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$515
other 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -45.4% -50.6% 40% 20% -58.5%
all 5 -45.4% -50.6% 40% 20% -58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 20% -58.5%
10% -55.3% 20% -62.5%
15% -59.6% 20% -66.1%
20% -63.6% 20% -69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$196 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$514
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage56d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $128 −$126 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $77 +$50 +65%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) May 08 $166 −$163 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $302 −$299 -99%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 26 $286 +$24 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $77 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $128 9d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $77 38d
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) BUY Sabres 34¢ $166 40d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 68¢ $302 48d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 92¢ $286 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.68 · official $93.68 (match) · 9 history records