Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05dd…e2af finance 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30,961 (-7%) realized −$31,424 · open +$463
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%249W / 176L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$1,044per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$7,182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 61% −$1,065
other 23% +$9,282
tech 9% −$211
sports 6% +$1,859
politics 1% +$428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -9.9% -18.4% 62% 28% -8.4%
≤30d 123 +0.5% -9.1% 66% 30% -5.1%
≤90d 356 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 31% -8.0%
all 425 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 29% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 29% -7.5%
10% -19.2% 23% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.0% 20% -24.4%
20% -34.2% 16% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$788) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$168 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$7,182
Realized−$31,424
Unrealized+$463
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses249 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions7
Markets (closed)425 / 432
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$1,044
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $6,378 $6,806 +$428 (+7%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 54¢ 53¢ $138 $135 −$3 (-2%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Up 48¢ 66¢ $97 $133 +$36 (+38%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 65¢ 91¢ $65 $91 +$26 (+40%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 27¢ 17¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-37%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 66¢ 11¢ $23 $4 −$19 (-83%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Up 49¢ 70¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 17 $393 −$393 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $735 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,718 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,234 +$6 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,778 +$2 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $800 −$800 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $365 +$2 +1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $532 +$282 +53%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $281 +$178 +63%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,269 +$6 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,351 +$28 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 12? Jun 12 $154 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 12? Jun 12 $250 −$3 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1,133 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? Jun 12 $836 +$1 +0%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $328 +$294 +90%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 12? Jun 12 $372 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $245 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,574 +$350 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $10,824 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $63 +$45 +72%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $143 −$143 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,462 +$701 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $383 +$545 +142%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,970 +$358 +18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $272 +$236 +87%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,627 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 11 $232 −$232 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $300 −$300 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $844 −$842 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,169 +$1 +0%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,817 +$181 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,438 +$710 +49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $49 −$11 -22%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $390 +$269 +69%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $48 −$47 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 10 $81 −$81 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 10 $297 −$186 -63%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $586 −$586 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $426 +$7 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $3,169 +$337 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $458 +$4 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $976 +$5 +0%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $18 +$4 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 8? Jun 08 $475 +$35 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 8? Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 57¢ $28 4m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 57¢ $120 4m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 57¢ $20 5m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 55¢ $28 5m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $330 16m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $375 17m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 53¢ $3 25m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 53¢ $354 26m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $100 27m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $100 27m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $100 27m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $5 27m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 47¢ $736 33m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 47¢ $240 33m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 39¢ $504 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 46¢ $5 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 46¢ $23 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 43¢ $219 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 42¢ $382 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $66 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $11 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $74 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $11 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $74 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $37 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $36 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 41¢ $82 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 41¢ $65 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,182.36 · official $7,190.94 (match) · 3500 history records