Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05db…006c crypto 893 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$107 (+1%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%500W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$295
14 days−$166
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$250
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 +11.3% +0.7% 54% 49% -16.1%
≤30d 816 +43.9% +30.2% 58% 55% -10.7%
≤90d 893 +38.1% +24.9% 56% 51% -11.6%
all 893 +38.1% +24.9% 56% 51% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.9% 51% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here +13.0% 47% -20.0%
15% +2.1% 38% -27.8%
20% -7.9% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses500 / 393
Open positions0
Markets (closed)893 / 893
History coverage45d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 893 Trades
no open positions (413 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $0.00 · 2743 history records