Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05d6…c5b5 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-8%) realized −$70 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$85
crypto 33% −$108
other 14% −$53
sports 13% +$48
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 38 -31.3% -37.8% 26% 26% -17.5%
all 38 -31.3% -37.8% 26% 26% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 26% -17.5%
10% -43.8% 26% -25.4%
15% -49.2% 26% -32.6%
20% -54.2% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage66d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $10 $32 +$22 (+221%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -97%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$28 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$9 -93%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? Apr 26 $6 +$43 +711%
Will Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 20 $221 +$85 +39%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 11 $3 +$4 +131%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 11 $15 −$30 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 11 $6 +$5 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 32h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 16d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 29d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 30d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 40d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 49d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 51d
Will Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 51d
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 56d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $306 56d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 61d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.85 · official $54.85 (match) · 61 history records