trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +6.9% | -3.2% | 50% | 50% | +10.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +6.9% | -3.2% | 50% | 50% | +10.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +6.9% | -3.2% | 50% | 50% | +10.2% |
| all | 2 | +6.9% | -3.2% | 50% | 50% | +10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -3.2% | 50% | +10.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -12.5% | 50% | -0.4% |
| 15% | -21.0% | 50% | -10.0% |
| 20% | -28.7% | 50% | -18.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 56¢ | $458 | $555 | +$97 (+21%) |
| Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? | No | 75¢ | 74¢ | $300 | $296 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | $270 | $280 | +$10 (+4%) |
| Starmer out by June 26, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 62¢ | $162 | $171 | +$10 (+6%) |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? | Yes | 58¢ | 61¢ | $153 | $161 | +$8 (+5%) |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? | No | 87¢ | 93¢ | $139 | $149 | +$10 (+7%) |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | No | 17¢ | 16¢ | $119 | $116 | −$4 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 20 | $117 | −$67 | -57% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 20 | $187 | +$133 | +71% |