Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05d2…f976 world 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$16
world 34% −$3
politics 13% $0
crypto 11% −$2
culture 4% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤30d 8 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 -9.5% -18.2% 42% 0% -9.4%
all 38 +5.2% -4.8% 47% 5% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 5% -7.3%
10% -13.9% 3% -16.2%
15% -22.2% 3% -24.3%
20% -29.8% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage452d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $26 +$1 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $80 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $47 −$4 -9%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $39 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 28 $6 $0 +5%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be more than 38 million in South Korean election? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 28 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 23 $1 $0 +17%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101K and $102K on May 23? May 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 20 $19 $0 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 +$15 +310%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on April 18? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $5 $0 -2%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 28 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 3m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $22 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $11 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $22 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $10 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $7 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $7 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $40 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $23 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $37 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $44 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $44 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records