Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
05 0x05cd…7d3c sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-14%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$265
crypto 31% −$160
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 40% +3.5%
≤30d 5 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 40% +3.5%
≤90d 5 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 40% +3.5%
all 6 -18.2% -26.0% 33% 33% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 33% +3.1%
10% -33.1% 33% -6.7%
15% -39.6% 33% -15.7%
20% -45.5% 33% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$65 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage133d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$92 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$68 -66%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 +$255 +100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$108 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Feb 24 $5 −$2 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 49¢ $254 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $99 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $149 16h
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 113d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records