Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x05c8…2223 crypto 992 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,254 (-8%) realized −$8,296 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%546W / 443L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1,717
crypto 33% −$1,427
sports 19% +$728
politics 6% −$1,167
other 5% −$404
tech 0% −$26
culture 0% +$75
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.8% -12.1% 71% 38% -6.4%
≤30d 185 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 43% -10.8%
≤90d 522 -3.7% -12.9% 59% 42% -9.2%
all 989 -3.8% -12.9% 55% 41% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 41% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 31% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 27% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 22% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$1,336
Realized−$8,296
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses546 / 443
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions3
Markets (closed)989 / 992
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$105
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 989 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $930 $952 +$22 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 72¢ $363 $383 +$20 (+5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $23 +$5 +22%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $74 +$26 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $93 +$8 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,206 +$192 +16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $188 +$5 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $209 −$25 -12%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $204 +$6 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $645 +$8 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $332 −$116 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$7 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $55 +$6 +10%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 +$27 +71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$3 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,952 +$121 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $87 +$9 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,700 +$210 +8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $201 +$26 +13%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $98 +$12 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $92 +$6 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $87 +$4 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $887 −$27 -3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 +$15 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$50 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$18 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1,500 +$192 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +52%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $113 +$74 +66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $60 −$45 -75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 +$4 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $499 −$259 -52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $613 −$609 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $607 +$9 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $506 +$43 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $517 +$47 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $202 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $930 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $60 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $72 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $15 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2,253 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $142 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $71 18h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 83¢ $20 20h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 82¢ $23 21h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $35 22h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $38 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $93 32h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $101 32h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $193 32h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 96¢ $110 33h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 96¢ $78 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 84¢ $185 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $209 33h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 97¢ $204 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 85¢ $176 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 80¢ $15 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 76¢ $22 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $259 37h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $40 37h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 89¢ $679 37h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $653 37h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 90¢ $195 37h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 54¢ $216 38h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $233 38h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,335.97 · official $1,335.01 (match) · 3500 history records