Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05c6…f4e2 sports 218 markets active 5d ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$272 (+2%) realized +$354 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate70%149W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$53
14 days+$72
30 days+$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$453
other 2% −$82
crypto 2% −$149
politics 1% +$1
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.4% +1.7% 83% 83% +1.9%
≤30d 30 +17.2% +6.0% 80% 80% +9.9%
≤90d 126 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 63% -9.6%
all 213 +2.5% -7.2% 70% 67% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 67% -7.3%
10% -16.1% 57% -16.2%
15% -24.2% 40% -24.3%
20% -31.6% 29% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$56 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$354
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses149 / 64
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions5
Markets (closed)213 / 218
History coverage145d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 95¢ 97¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $70 +$18 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $70 +$18 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $70 +$13 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 +$24 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$50 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $70 −$70 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $70 +$18 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $70 +$20 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 07 $70 +$20 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $71 +$22 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $71 +$23 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $71 +$40 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $71 +$44 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $71 +$61 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 04 $70 +$14 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Jun 04 $70 +$16 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 04 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 04 $71 −$70 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 18 $71 +$23 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 18 $71 +$27 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 18 $71 +$40 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 18 $71 +$40 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 18 $71 +$42 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 18 $71 +$44 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 18 $71 +$46 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 18 $71 +$61 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 18 $71 +$64 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 14 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 11 $70 +$8 +12%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 11 $67 +$12 +18%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 11 $70 +$19 +26%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 11 $71 +$40 +57%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 11 $71 +$40 +57%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 11 $71 +$44 +62%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 11 $71 +$44 +62%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 11 $70 +$45 +65%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 11 $71 +$46 +65%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 08 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 08 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 06 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 04 $70 −$70 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $70 +$6 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 02 $70 +$11 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $70 +$19 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $71 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $71 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $70 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 84¢ $70 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $70 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $70 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $50 10d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig BUY Ketlen Souza 75¢ $71 10d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Marcus McGhee 77¢ $70 10d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 63¢ $71 10d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 53¢ $71 10d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli BUY Alessandro Costa 79¢ $70 10d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 74¢ $71 10d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P BUY Joanderson Brito 61¢ $71 10d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 55¢ $71 12d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Iwo Baraniewski 76¢ $71 12d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Jeisla Chaves 77¢ $70 12d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 54¢ $71 12d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Sergei Pavlovich 81¢ $70 24d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 83¢ $70 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 29d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Bernardo Sopaj 53¢ $71 31d
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight BUY Alice Ardelean 63¢ $71 31d
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy BUY Modestas Bukauskas 75¢ $71 31d
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli BUY Andre Petroski 60¢ $71 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.75 · official $217.75 (match) · 383 history records