Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05c5…1d0a crypto 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (699 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,036 (+2%) realized +$1,302 · open −$266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%97W / 90L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day698.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$228
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (699 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 32% -8.5%
≤30d 187 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 32% -8.5%
≤90d 187 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 32% -8.5%
all 187 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 32% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover698.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 32% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 24% -17.3%
15% -25.6% 16% -25.3%
20% -32.9% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$50 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized+$1,302
Unrealized−$266
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses97 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)187 / 188
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$245
Trades / day698.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $398 $701 +$304 (+76%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 33¢ 95¢ $16 $46 +$30 (+188%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 99¢ 64¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-36%)
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price reach 10 ETH before 2027? No 79¢ 55¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-31%)
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price dip to 2 ETH before 2027? Yes 88¢ 46¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 43¢ 16¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? Yes 34¢ 7¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $266 $0 −$266 (-100%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 36¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,157 −$117 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $247 −$22 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $602 −$27 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5,821 +$446 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $3,480 +$1,465 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $409 −$73 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $360 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$18 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $359 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $530 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,822 +$28 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $157 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$42 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $721 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$56 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$24 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $86 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$26 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$26 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2,071 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $136 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$35 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $504 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$30 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$15 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $749 −$13 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$66 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $411 +$129 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$22 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $827.82 · official $827.16 (match) · 3500 history records