Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05c3…b481 crypto 1694 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%892W / 800L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$22
14 days−$31
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 340 -7.1% -16.0% 51% 51% -13.9%
≤30d 1186 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 53% -12.1%
≤90d 1692 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 53% -12.3%
all 1692 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 53% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 53% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 52% -20.7%
15% -28.6% 52% -28.3%
20% -35.6% 52% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses892 / 800
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1692 / 1694
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 51¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $1.64 (match) · 3500 history records