Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x05be…78d0 world 586 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$359 (-0%) realized −$356 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%319W / 265L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$644
7 days−$783
14 days−$628
30 days−$2,352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$1,031
other 14% −$604
politics 11% −$1,376
finance 6% +$542
tech 5% −$121
weather 4% −$140
sports 3% +$25
crypto 1% −$27
economics 0% +$238
culture 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 42% -20.9%
≤30d 72 -27.9% -34.8% 36% 26% -22.5%
≤90d 246 -8.5% -17.2% 51% 38% -13.2%
all 584 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 39% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 39% -9.9%
10% -21.9% 25% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 15% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$63 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$356
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses319 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)584 / 586
History coverage288d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $208 $206 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $137 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $401 −$15 -4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$21 +111%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $502 −$11 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $842 −$461 -55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $533 +$244 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $83 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $473 +$226 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $649 −$646 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $856 +$90 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $524 −$10 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $323 −$250 -77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $921 −$35 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $436 +$109 +25%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $58 +$12 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $38 −$11 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $410 +$41 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $946 +$111 +12%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $28 −$28 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $616 −$126 -20%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 02 $108 −$12 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $90 −$14 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,350 +$59 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $868 −$67 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 30 $48 −$16 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 24? May 29 $24 −$11 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 19? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 1? May 29 $15 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 24? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 9? May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Huzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Rada Zolotareva May 29 $90 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 29? May 29 $27 −$15 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 21? May 29 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 29 $124 −$124 -100%
Trump weaponization fund blocked by May 31? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 29 $600 −$308 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 16? May 29 $60 −$60 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $448 −$145 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,259 +$123 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $211 50m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $386 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $139 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $401 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $26 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $491 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $372 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $459 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $383 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $778 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $533 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $2 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $406 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $492 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $37 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $16 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $100 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 88¢ $264 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $358 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $123 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.58 · official $341.60 (match) · 2076 history records