trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | Netherlands | 23¢ | 24¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Spread: Haiti (-2.5) | Haiti | 2¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) | Türkiye | 33¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Spread: Qatar (-1.5) | Qatar | 2¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Germany (-4.5) | Jun 14 | $5 | +$10 | +203% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$11 | +53% |
| Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Spread: Australia (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | -21% |
| Spread: Haiti (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Spread: Haiti (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Spread: Qatar (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $6 | −$6 | -97% |
| Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Jan 29 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 29 | $30 | +$23 | +76% |
| Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? | Jan 25 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Germany (-4.5) | SELL Germany | 96¢ | $15 | 1h |
| Spread: Germany (-4.5) | BUY Germany | 31¢ | $5 | 3h |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | BUY Netherlands | 23¢ | $5 | 4h |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | SELL Yes | 99¢ | $31 | 17h |
| Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) | BUY Türkiye | 33¢ | $10 | 18h |
| Spread: Australia (-1.5) | SELL Australia | 5¢ | $2 | 19h |
| Spread: Haiti (-1.5) | SELL Haiti | 5¢ | $2 | 19h |
| Spread: Australia (-1.5) | BUY Australia | 6¢ | $2 | 25h |
| Spread: Haiti (-1.5) | BUY Haiti | 5¢ | $2 | 25h |
| Spread: Haiti (-2.5) | BUY Haiti | 2¢ | $2 | 25h |
| Spread: Qatar (-1.5) | BUY Qatar | 2¢ | $2 | 26h |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 64¢ | $20 | 28h |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | BUY Yes | 11¢ | $6 | 3d |
| Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY Yes | 82¢ | $20 | 136d |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL No | 44¢ | $53 | 136d |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY No | 25¢ | $30 | 137d |
| Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? | BUY Yes | 39¢ | $2 | 140d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 25% | 25% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 25% | 25% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 25% | 25% | -8.7% |
| all | 11 | -27.1% | -34.1% | 27% | 27% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.1% | 27% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -40.4% | 27% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -46.1% | 27% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -51.4% | 27% | -32.9% |