Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05ae…03f3 crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,244 (-32%) realized −$2,243 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%30W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,210
7 days−$1,210
14 days−$1,976
30 days−$2,994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,900
weather 1% −$84
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -65.8% -69.1% 18% 15% -88.1%
≤30d 129 -29.0% -35.8% 23% 21% -49.4%
≤90d 129 -29.0% -35.8% 23% 21% -49.4%
all 129 -29.0% -35.8% 23% 21% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 21% -49.4%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 20% -54.2%
15% -47.5% 19% -58.7%
20% -52.7% 15% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$51 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$2,243
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses30 / 99
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage19d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$10 +322%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $127 −$109 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on June 5? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 53°F or below on June 5? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $216 −$149 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 5? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$98 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Orinats Yerkir win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 5? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $516 −$384 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $208 +$236 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $127 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $319 −$319 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$299 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $109 −$106 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$25 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $22 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $11 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.28 · official $10.30 (match) · 544 history records