Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05ae…5a4b sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$286 (-18%) realized −$272 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$247
sports 35% −$401
world 10% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +69.4% +53.3% 22% 22% -31.5%
≤30d 9 +69.4% +53.3% 22% 22% -31.5%
≤90d 9 +69.4% +53.3% 22% 22% -31.5%
all 9 +69.4% +53.3% 22% 22% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.3% 22% -31.5%
10% +38.6% 22% -38.1%
15% +25.2% 22% -44.1%
20% +13.0% 11% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$404 vs −$157 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $193 −$188 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $111 −$108 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $62 +$795 +1276%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $498 −$492 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $155 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $103 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $193 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $111 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 30h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 30h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $498 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.92 · official $345.92 (match) · 16 history records