Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
05 0x05ad…dda9 sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-2%) realized −$176 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$251
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$654
other 39% +$578
culture 6% +$3
crypto 6% +$130
world 6% −$239
tech 2% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 50% +2.3%
≤30d 21 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 43% -12.0%
≤90d 46 -20.7% -28.3% 48% 46% -17.2%
all 71 -8.9% -17.6% 54% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 52% -10.8%
10% -25.5% 45% -19.3%
15% -32.7% 35% -27.1%
20% -39.3% 27% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$83 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 33
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage150d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $153 +$113 +74%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $428 +$65 +15%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $46 +$127 +274%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $61 +$41 +67%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $203 +$109 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $322 +$91 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $268 +$151 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $248 +$20 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $90 +$97 +108%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $147 +$90 +61%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 18 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $149 −$149 -100%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 20 $151 +$86 +57%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 10 $193 +$39 +20%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 10 $34 −$34 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks May 02 $64 −$64 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $98 +$68 +70%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 29 $50 +$52 +104%
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $243 +$80 +33%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 24 $99 +$64 +65%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 23 $249 −$249 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? Apr 21 $49 +$31 +63%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? Apr 21 $99 +$25 +26%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–2 Apr 21 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? Apr 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $149 −$149 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eas Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons finish with the best record in the NBA? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $101 +$32 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $98 +$39 +39%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $100 +$20 +20%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 20 $100 +$35 +35%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $143 +$50 +35%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $49 +$37 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $153 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $428 7h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $46 35h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $36 35h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $61 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $21 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $203 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 40¢ $148 3d
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $62 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $322 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $268 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $248 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $87 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $90 9d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $147 10d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $139 35d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $126 48d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 63¢ $151 48d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $149 56d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $152 56d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? BUY Yes 83¢ $193 56d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 59¢ $98 64d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 53¢ $64 64d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 60¢ $99 65d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 75¢ $243 67d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 85¢ $249 69d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Stars 55¢ $149 70d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $32 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.16 · official $263.16 (match) · 142 history records