Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:12:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x05ab…8145
other · 37 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
+$23,809 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,100 · open −$56
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 16 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,635
7 days+$12,493
14 days+$27,100
30 days+$27,100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $7,230 $7,496 +$266 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 72¢ 59¢ $7,735 $6,345 −$1,391 (-18%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $3,620 $4,437 +$817 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $2,877 $2,758 −$118 (-4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $1,489 $2,626 +$1,137 (+76%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 82¢ 76¢ $2,559 $2,381 −$178 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $2,602 $2,342 −$260 (-10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 41¢ 32¢ $3,016 $2,332 −$684 (-23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 43¢ 46¢ $721 $756 +$35 (+5%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 57¢ 57¢ $553 $554 +$1 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 15¢ 10¢ $622 $432 −$190 (-31%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 43¢ $578 $388 −$190 (-33%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $428 $383 −$45 (-11%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $271 $273 +$2 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 35¢ 36¢ $215 $216 +$1 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 32¢ 48¢ $117 $174 +$57 (+49%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 47¢ 48¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 23¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 74¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 12 $1 +$670 +67250%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $69,972 +$3,118 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2,349 +$226 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,410 −$250 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $1,917 +$122 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1,757 +$347 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $60,775 +$5,306 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $728 +$11 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $6,529 +$181 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $480 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $924 −$96 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,761 −$17 -0%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $5,187 +$2,008 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $84 −$83 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $812 −$56 -7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,497 +$785 +52%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 07 $2,340 +$213 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $109 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $44,467 +$332 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4,810 +$180 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $27,948 +$13,628 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $12,604 +$468 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 81% +$22,812
crypto 13% +$512
other 6% +$2,492
sports 1% +$558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $675 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $204 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $164 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $164 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $105 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $345 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $585 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1,380 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $786 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $79 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $180 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $379 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $73 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1,065 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $100 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,187 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,400 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $253 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +102.0% +82.7% 68% 21% -2.9%
≤30d 23 +86.7% +68.9% 74% 22% -0.0%
≤90d 23 +86.7% +68.9% 74% 22% -0.0%
all 23 +86.7% +68.9% 74% 22% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover249.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +68.9% 22% -0.0%
10% +52.8% 17% -9.6%
15% ← realistic here +38.0% 17% -18.3%
20% +24.5% 9% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,950.30 · official $33,950.30 (match) · 3500 history records