Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
05 0x05aa…b7cb other 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+35%) realized +$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$53
other 25% −$1
politics 5% −$8
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% +28.2%
all 4 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 50% +28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 50% +28.2%
10% -37.2% 50% +15.9%
15% -43.2% 50% +4.7%
20% -48.8% 50% -5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$4 · ×6.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.78 per $1 lost it wins $6.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage47d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 02 $3 +$2 +55%
Trump out as President by May 31? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $100 +$53 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 44d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 64¢ $3 46d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 90¢ $153 49d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 57¢ $100 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.79 · official $32.79 (match) · 16 history records