Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05a9…ff96 crypto 1113 markets active 9d ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate81%907W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 340 -0.8% -10.3% 81% 38% -11.4%
≤90d 751 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 38% -11.2%
all 1113 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 41% -10.4%
10% -18.8% 18% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 7% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses907 / 206
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1113 / 1113
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1113 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records