Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05a8…9c7f crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$359 (+5%) realized +$359 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$792
7 days+$1,015
14 days+$1,015
30 days+$1,015
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$864
sports 39% +$988
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +11.9% +1.3% 48% 43% +38.7%
≤30d 21 +11.9% +1.3% 48% 43% +38.7%
≤90d 21 +11.9% +1.3% 48% 43% +38.7%
all 50 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 46% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 46% -4.6%
10% -16.6% 44% -13.8%
15% -24.7% 44% -22.1%
20% -32.1% 40% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$118 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$359
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage195d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $94 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$23 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$62 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $135 +$81 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$33 -78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $206 +$356 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $188 +$323 +172%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $401 +$282 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $137 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $179 +$218 +122%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$53 +200%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $84 +$98 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$97 -94%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Etcheverry Jan 07 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 06 $150 +$100 +67%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 06 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 06 $48 +$33 +70%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 06 $165 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 06 $316 +$35 +11%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 05 $427 −$379 -89%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 05 $441 +$237 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 05 $186 +$97 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 05 $112 +$112 +100%
Celtics vs. Clippers Jan 04 $303 +$341 +113%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5 Jan 03 $152 −$152 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 03 $149 −$149 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 03 $217 −$176 -81%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 8AM ET Jan 01 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 01 $145 +$72 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 01 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 01 $300 −$257 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 01 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 04 $501 −$299 -60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 04 $147 +$354 +241%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1) Dec 04 $101 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 04 $231 −$130 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 04 $148 +$83 +56%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 04 $88 +$60 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 04 $45 +$43 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 04 $84 −$39 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 37¢ $94 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $75 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $61 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $216 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $135 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $42 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $206 42h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $511 45h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 36¢ $188 47h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Lin Zhu 58¢ $401 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $143 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $96 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 99¢ $397 2d
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 44¢ $179 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 36¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $79 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.13 (match) · 100 history records