Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05a6…d96e crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$328 (-15%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -30.7% -37.3% 42% 35% -29.7%
≤30d 26 -30.7% -37.3% 42% 35% -29.7%
≤90d 26 -30.7% -37.3% 42% 35% -29.7%
all 26 -30.7% -37.3% 42% 35% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 35% -29.7%
10% -43.3% 31% -36.5%
15% -48.7% 31% -42.6%
20% -53.8% 19% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$58 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $284 −$95 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $225 +$80 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $209 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $82 +$58 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$37 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $43 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $66 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$20 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $77 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$31 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$56 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $173 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $118 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $167 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $47 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $99 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $259 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $126 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $98 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $88 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $111 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $140 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $82 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $44 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records