Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05a4…aec9 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%93W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$10
crypto 24% +$1
world 7% +$1
culture 7% $0
economics 5% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 93 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 1% -8.9%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses93 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage472d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 25 $39 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 30 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 20 $37 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? Mar 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on Feb Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 27? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Mar 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026? Feb 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 31 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 12? Jan 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 10? Dec 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 18 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on No Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 26? Dec 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on Nov Nov 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16? Nov 24 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 20d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 32d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 34d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 34d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 48d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 52d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 58d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 61d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 70d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 79d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 89d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $2 89d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 103d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 BUY No 99¢ $21 110d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on Feb BUY No 100¢ $5 110d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 100¢ $5 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 110d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $37 125d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 134d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 134d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 136d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $31 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $1 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.02 · official $39.02 (match) · 187 history records