Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x059e…4225 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$238 (-2%) realized −$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%45W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$10
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$8
politics 29% +$6
other 21% −$277
sports 9% −$1
finance 1% +$40
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.8% -12.0% 12% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 30 -0.4% -9.9% 23% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 39 -1.3% -10.7% 28% 8% -12.1%
all 125 -1.0% -10.4% 36% 4% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -11.8%
10% -19.0% 2% -20.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses45 / 80
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage460d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $166 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $169 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $110 −$12 -11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $344 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $198 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $190 −$21 -11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $150 +$29 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $80 −$4 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $178 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $209 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $195 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $181 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $166 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $195 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $41 +$10 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $143 −$7 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $15 −$3 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $174 +$6 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $29 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $191 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $181 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $7 −$1 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $146 +$40 +27%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $400 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $255 +$2 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $144 −$2 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $674 −$278 -41%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $805 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $335 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,088 +$3 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,156 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +13%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $187 47m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $156 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $144 25h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $169 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $122 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 82¢ $97 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $110 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $150 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $164 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $125 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $74 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $198 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $97 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.97 · official $186.62 (match) · 523 history records