Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x059d…52d5 crypto 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$161 (+1%) realized −$902 · open +$1,063
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day118.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$865
other 29% +$1,046
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +21.2% +9.7% 41% 40% -22.1%
≤30d 80 +21.2% +9.7% 41% 40% -22.1%
≤90d 80 +21.2% +9.7% 41% 40% -22.1%
all 80 +21.2% +9.7% 41% 40% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 40% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 39% -29.6%
15% -10.4% 35% -36.4%
20% -19.2% 24% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$61 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4,224
Realized−$902
Unrealized+$1,063
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 87
History coverage5d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day118.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $2,252 $3,396 +$1,144 (+51%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 77¢ $402 $463 +$61 (+15%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $494 $357 −$137 (-28%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $155 +$66 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $319 +$128 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $181 −$164 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$42 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $90 +$72 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $112 +$50 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$40 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $116 +$75 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$24 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$47 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $675 +$425 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $90 +$60 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $275 +$225 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $553 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $430 +$89 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $481 −$221 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $480 +$150 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $249 −$230 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $97 −$62 -64%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $281 −$261 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $385 −$385 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $326 −$326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $672 +$340 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$16 -66%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $68 +$32 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $17 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $46 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $18 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $45 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,223.54 · official $4,223.54 (match) · 642 history records