Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x059d…5d07 politics 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$22
politics 35% −$18
sports 11% −$11
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 138 +1.9% -7.8% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 5% -18.3%
15% -24.7% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage129d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $206 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $224 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $288 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $243 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $245 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $269 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $260 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 29 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $222 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $265 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 24 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $258 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $310 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $473 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $286 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $307 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $274 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $478 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $307 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 19d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $266 20d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $266 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $261 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 33d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $214 35d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $214 37d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 37d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 42d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $224 43d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $224 43d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 43d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 44d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 45d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 45d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 45d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $243 45d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $239 45d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $239 46d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $260 46d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $261 46d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $245 47d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $245 47d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 47d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 47d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $279 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 453 history records