Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x059c…a970 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,978 (+40%) realized +$2,325 · open −$347
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$906
world 27% +$3,204
sports 15% +$64
politics 11% −$11
finance 6% −$1
crypto 6% −$300
economics 2% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+56.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 +220.2% +189.7% 33% 33% +119.0%
all 26 +72.4% +56.0% 27% 27% +46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.0% 27% +46.7%
10% +41.1% 27% +32.7%
15% +27.5% 27% +19.9%
20% +15.0% 27% +8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +142% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +196% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$727 vs −$144 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$753
Realized+$2,325
Unrealized−$347
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)26 / 32
History coverage150d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $250 $267 +$17 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $250 $222 −$28 (-11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $300 $51 −$249 (-83%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 16 $102 +$424 +414%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $200 +$2,182 +1091%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April? Apr 22 $300 −$281 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $100 +$614 +614%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $100 +$1,318 +1323%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March? Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 15 $201 +$104 +52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Jan 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Hyperlend FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Jan 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $34 in January? Jan 28 $150 +$354 +236%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 27 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 27 $167 +$90 +54%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 21 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $105 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 14d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $259 23d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes 10¢ $259 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,382 41d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $102 42d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April? BUY Yes 11¢ $300 58d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $200 70d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $200 70d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $200 71d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $200 71d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 71d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 71d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 71d
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $100 71d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,418 73d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 82d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 82d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes 4¢ $200 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? BUY Yes 28¢ $104 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 96d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 44¢ $304 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 29¢ $201 101d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 135d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Lopes 44¢ $200 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.78 · official $752.88 (match) · 69 history records