trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $32 | −$18 (-35%) |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $1 | −$8 (-88%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | Down | 27¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $17 | $0 | −$17 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116,000 on October 13? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $52 | $0 | −$52 (-100%) |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $80 | $0 | −$80 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $245 | −$48 | -20% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | May 15 | $74 | +$51 | +69% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | May 11 | $20 | +$8 | +40% |
| Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? | Apr 29 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | Feb 28 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Feb 28 | $4 | +$5 | +114% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | Jan 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Nov 01 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? | Oct 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12? | Oct 17 | $20 | +$8 | +38% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Oct 13 | $20 | −$17 | -85% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116,000 on October 13? | Oct 12 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Oct 12 | $20 | +$5 | +26% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | Oct 12 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -59.9% | -63.7% | 0% | 0% | -63.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 50% | 50% | -7.5% |
| all | 15 | -44.9% | -50.1% | 33% | 33% | -35.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -50.1% | 33% | -35.6% |
| 10% | -54.9% | 33% | -41.7% |
| 15% | -59.3% | 27% | -47.4% |
| 20% | -63.3% | 13% | -52.5% |