Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

05 0x0595…cebf crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$11 (+21%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%16W / 4L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day44.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+8.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	80%	60%	+4.1%
≤30d	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	80%	60%	+4.1%
≤90d	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	80%	60%	+4.1%
all	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	80%	60%	+4.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover44.5 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+8.3%	60%	+4.1%
10% ← realistic here	-2.1%	35%	-5.9%
15%	-11.5%	35%	-15.0%
20%	-20.2%	20%	-23.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

19% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +31% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses16 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day44.5

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Team Vitality	66¢	64¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$1	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 16	$4	$0	+4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$2	-40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 15	$4	$0	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY Team Vitality	66¢	$3	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	SELL Down	83¢	$2	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$2	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Down	35¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$2	4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$2	4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$3	4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$2	5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$4	7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$3	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$2	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$2	8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$4	17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$2	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$2	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$2	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Down	92¢	$3	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$2	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	SELL Down	93¢	$2	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$2	19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL G2	99¢	$4	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.93 · official $2.93 (match) · 46 history records