Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0593…4892 crypto 537 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,155 (-7%) realized −$3,135 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%220W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$198
14 days+$36
30 days−$1,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$1,769
sports 23% −$2,031
other 3% +$45
world 0% −$83
weather 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 47% -3.2%
≤30d 105 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 37% -32.5%
≤90d 469 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 41% -14.0%
all 536 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -17.3%
10% -24.3% 41% -25.2%
15% -31.6% 41% -32.4%
20% -38.3% 41% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$66 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized−$3,135
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses220 / 316
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)536 / 537
History coverage254d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 59¢ $494 $474 −$20 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$45 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $64 −$53 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$42 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$47 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$18 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $67 +$63 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$30 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $109 −$40 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $67 +$59 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$34 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$51 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $62 +$58 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $130 +$120 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$48 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $66 +$57 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $79 +$71 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $77 +$70 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$70 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$44 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $50 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $57 −$11 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$43 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $24 +$22 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $55 −$46 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$21 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$24 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $71 −$68 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $71 −$69 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$36 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$67 +81%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $15 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$44 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$54 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$37 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$63 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $96 +$77 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $24 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $64 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.00 · official $476.40 (match) · 2575 history records