Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0593…5118 other 228 markets active 6h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-12%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%79W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$13
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$272
sports 32% −$25
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 43% -10.2%
≤30d 146 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 34% -21.6%
≤90d 224 -15.7% -23.7% 35% 32% -22.9%
all 227 -15.5% -23.6% 35% 32% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 32% -22.8%
10% -30.9% 26% -30.2%
15% -37.6% 22% -36.9%
20% -43.7% 14% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses79 / 148
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage133d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$2 -38%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 +$2 +37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$2 -25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 +$2 +35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$3 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$5 +104%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 +$3 +47%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$4 +57%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 $0 -10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $11 −$1 -6%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $11 −$3 -29%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $14 −$5 -34%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $9 +$5 +56%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $18 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $9 $0 -2%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $8 −$2 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $7 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $3 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $6 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $4 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 42h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $7 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.25 · official $5.25 (match) · 608 history records