Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0592…33a2 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 22% −$18
economics 7% −$4
politics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $298 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $121 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $319 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $245 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $289 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $467 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 07 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $209 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 40m
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 7h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 9h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 10h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 12h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 16h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 19h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 21h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 23h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 24h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $6 26h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $6 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 30h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 38h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 40h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 40h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 42h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 47h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1310 history records