Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0592…a877 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$4
politics 20% $0
other 17% −$1
sports 7% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.6% -5.4% 40% 20% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -4.9% -14.0% 44% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 16 -4.9% -14.0% 44% 6% -9.2%
all 36 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage268d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 83¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $38 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $46 −$5 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 29 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $16 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $22 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $43 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $43 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $39 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $38 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.61 · official $37.35 (match) · 108 history records