Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

05 0x058f…baa1 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$28 (-11%) realized −$52 · open +$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 191d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$26 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage

Net worth$227

Realized−$52

Unrealized+$24

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions6

Markets (closed)2 / 8

History coverage191d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	11¢	$34	$52	+$18 (+51%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	5¢	$33	$49	+$15 (+46%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	18¢	$35	$47	+$12 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$33	$30	−$3 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	11¢	$33	$25	−$8 (-25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	9¢	$33	$24	−$10 (-29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Dec 07	$29	−$29	-100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Dec 07	$23	−$23	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	109d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$33	161d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$33	161d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$33	161d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$33	161d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$33	161d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$33	161d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	4¢	$14	190d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	23¢	$14	190d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	22¢	$8	190d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	3¢	$3	190d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	3¢	$11	190d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.62 · official $226.62 (match) · 173 history records