Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x058c…6e0e other 87 markets active 1d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$5
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$6
sports 37% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +16.2% +5.2% 14% 14% +2.4%
≤30d 42 -3.1% -12.4% 12% 12% -13.7%
≤90d 42 -3.1% -12.4% 12% 12% -13.7%
all 42 -3.1% -12.4% 12% 12% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 12% -13.7%
10% -20.7% 12% -22.0%
15% -28.4% 12% -29.5%
20% -35.4% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions45
Markets (closed)42 / 87
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +343%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +408%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 10 $1 $0 -9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.31 · official $41.31 (match) · 117 history records