Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x0580…e50d
sports · 23 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$28 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$22 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$76
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage37d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$26
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 78¢ $73 $76 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $131 +$10 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 $0 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 13 $1 +$2 +137%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 May 12 $2 $0 -7%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5 May 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $2 +$3 +156%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $1 +$5 +473%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $8 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$2
world 33% +$7
sports 21% +$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $74 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $67 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $67 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $64 6h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 7d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $1 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 31d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 31d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 31d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 31d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 18¢ $1 31d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $3 31d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $1 32d
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) BUY 100 Thieves 47¢ $2 32d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $2 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 32d
LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5 SELL No 100¢ $2 33d
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 SELL Yes 100¢ $2 33d
Thunder vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 48¢ $5 33d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $2 33d
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $1 33d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 BUY No 52¢ $1 33d
LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5 BUY No 54¢ $1 33d
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 BUY No 53¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.3% +5.2% 100% 50% +1.8%
≤30d 6 -10.2% -18.7% 67% 33% +0.0%
≤90d 22 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 41% -2.3%
all 22 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 41% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 41% -2.3%
10% -9.7% 36% -11.7%
15% -18.4% 32% -20.2%
20% -26.4% 23% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.14 · official $76.14 (match) · 52 history records