trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 78¢ | $73 | $76 | +$3 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $131 | +$10 | +8% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $51 | +$13 | +25% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 01 | $5 | +$5 | +96% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $43 | +$4 | +10% |
| Will Detroit Pistons advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 18 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 14 | $1 | $0 | +36% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? | May 14 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 14 | $1 | −$1 | -76% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 14 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) | May 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner | May 13 | $2 | −$1 | -62% |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | May 13 | $1 | +$2 | +137% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 | May 12 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5 | May 12 | $1 | +$1 | +82% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 12 | $2 | +$3 | +156% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? | May 11 | $1 | +$5 | +473% |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? | May 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | May 10 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? | May 09 | $8 | +$3 | +43% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +16.3% | +5.2% | 100% | 50% | +1.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -10.2% | -18.7% | 67% | 33% | +0.0% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +10.4% | -0.1% | 50% | 41% | -2.3% |
| all | 22 | +10.4% | -0.1% | 50% | 41% | -2.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.1% | 41% | -2.3% |
| 10% | -9.7% | 36% | -11.7% |
| 15% | -18.4% | 32% | -20.2% |
| 20% | -26.4% | 23% | -28.0% |