Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

05 0x057e…a638 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$4 (+49%) realized +$2 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +191% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +163% what you keep after slip

Net edge+163%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+163.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+300.2%	+262.1%	100%	100%	+262.1%
≤30d	1	+300.2%	+262.1%	100%	100%	+262.1%
≤90d	2	+191.0%	+163.3%	100%	100%	+161.9%
all	2	+191.0%	+163.3%	100%	100%	+161.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+163.3%	100%	+161.9%
10%	+138.1%	100%	+136.9%
15%	+115.1%	100%	+114.0%
20%	+94.0%	100%	+93.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +190% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +191% · $-wt +190% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage42d

Avg bet$1

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	14¢	42¢	$1	$3	+$2 (+196%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	30¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$3	+300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	May 05	$1	+$1	+82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$2	38m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	7¢	$1	2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	26¢	$1	2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	SELL Down	46¢	$2	41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$1	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.73 · official $6.73 (match) · 13 history records