Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0578…08da politics 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,261 (-1%) realized −$1,262 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate26%33W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$782per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$13
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$47
other 32% −$133
sports 12% −$1,035
world 3% −$43
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -20.7% -28.3% 6% 0% -11.8%
all 128 -3.8% -13.0% 26% 8% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 8% -10.7%
10% -21.3% 7% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 7% -27.0%
20% -35.9% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,134) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$659
Realized−$1,262
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses33 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage139d
Avg bet$782
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $658 $659 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,328 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,838 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $2,081 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,112 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,073 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $225 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $392 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,903 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $567 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,319 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,864 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $2,184 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 09 $254 $0 -0%
Wizards vs. Pistons Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Heat vs. Bucks Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Apr 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $389 16m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $389 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 5h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $202 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $658 27h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $655 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $656 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $974 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $975 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,112 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,105 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,106 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,046 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $968 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $970 12d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,073 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $874 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $876 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $549 18d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $550 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $559 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $560 22d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $479 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.94 · official $658.94 (match) · 417 history records