Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0576…6232 sports 1115 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$54 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%589W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$380est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$128
14 days−$7
30 days+$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,076
other 6% +$489
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 48% -4.6%
≤30d 409 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 44% -6.7%
≤90d 1118 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 45% -9.6%
all 1118 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 45% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 45% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 45% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 44% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 41% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses589 / 529
Est. fees paid−$380
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1118 / 1115
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 46¢ 46¢ $60 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Vidmanova vs Voloshchuk Jun 16 $110 +$40 +36%
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $20 +$18 +93%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $57 +$26 +46%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $16 +$17 +105%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $16 +$17 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $26 +$46 +178%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $70 +$39 +56%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $31 +$56 +178%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $16 +$17 +108%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $14 +$17 +122%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $20 +$24 +117%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $20 +$12 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $18 +$14 +75%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $33 +$44 +133%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $15 +$20 +134%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $25 +$21 +85%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 +$4 +85%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 12 $5 +$4 +89%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $15 +$15 +100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $14 +$15 +104%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $79 +$53 +67%
Linette vs. Pohankova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $4 +$4 +85%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $46 +$2 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $44 +$42 +96%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $61 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 21¢ $22 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 20¢ $23 3h
Set 1 Winner: Vidmanova vs Voloshchuk BUY Vidmanova 73¢ $110 27h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 68¢ $57 29h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 30h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $16 39h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 48¢ $16 40h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $33 40h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 77¢ $5 47h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 77¢ $5 47h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 36¢ $26 2d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ $70 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $49 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $29 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $13 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $35 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 58¢ $22 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 48¢ $16 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 55¢ $22 2d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 BUY Under 45¢ $14 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 45¢ $1 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 45¢ $1 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 45¢ $4 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $31 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 45¢ $1 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 45¢ $2 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 45¢ $7 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 48¢ $16 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 46¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.25 · official $175.25 (match) · 3500 history records