Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
05 0x0575…5199 world 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$381 (+4%) realized +$218 · open +$163
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate79%129W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$187
other 22% +$181
economics 16% +$250
politics 13% −$401
finance 8% +$114
tech 6% +$35
crypto 2% +$12
sports 2% −$1
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 40% -0.5%
≤30d 5 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 40% -0.5%
≤90d 17 +21.0% +9.5% 100% 59% +0.9%
all 163 -3.2% -12.4% 79% 47% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -6.9%
10% -20.8% 24% -15.8%
15% -28.5% 10% -24.0%
20% -35.5% 8% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$1,776
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$163
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses129 / 34
Open positions38
Markets (closed)163 / 201
History coverage596d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 76¢ 87¢ $228 $261 +$33 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 92¢ 100¢ $134 $145 +$11 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 80¢ 100¢ $80 $100 +$20 (+25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 59¢ 99¢ $41 $70 +$28 (+69%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $57 $66 +$9 (+16%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+9%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 69¢ 89¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+29%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 83¢ $43 $42 −$2 (-4%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+15%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Negative GDP growth in 2026? No 84¢ 87¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 91¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 99¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 77¢ 90¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Jun 18 $50 +$7 +13%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? Apr 18 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 18 $6 +$4 +70%
Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31? Apr 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? Apr 18 $20 +$1 +4%
US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31? Apr 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Apr 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 18 $32 +$18 +56%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? Apr 18 $70 +$14 +20%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? Apr 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 18 $458 +$42 +9%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 05 $10 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20? Mar 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Grok 4.20 released by January 31? Mar 05 $10 +$3 +33%
Stefon Diggs suspended this season? Mar 05 $20 +$4 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 05 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January Mar 05 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Mar 05 $20 +$14 +70%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 05 $50 +$14 +28%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31? Mar 05 $100 +$6 +6%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 16 $12 +$8 +61%
Canada recession in 2025? Jan 16 $37 +$33 +89%
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 15? Jan 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $60 by end of January? Jan 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Isar Aerospace successful orbital launch in 2025? Jan 03 $5 +$3 +56%
Cluely $1B valuation in 2025? Jan 03 $9 +$1 +12%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025? Jan 03 $10 $0 +4%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Jan 03 $10 +$1 +8%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Jan 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 03 $10 +$1 +9%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Jan 03 $10 +$1 +11%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025? Jan 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31? Jan 03 $10 +$3 +27%
Meta releases Llama 5 in 2025? Jan 03 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Jan 03 $10 +$6 +61%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 03 $48 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $16 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 59¢ $6 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 64¢ $32 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $30 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $12 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 92¢ $458 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $80 100d
Natural Disaster in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 149d
Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 149d
5kt meteor strike in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 149d
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 149d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 149d
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $10 149d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 149d
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $10 149d
Will a hurricane form by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $10 149d
US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $20 149d
Human moon landing in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 149d
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? BUY No 92¢ $100 149d
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 149d
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? BUY No 65¢ $10 149d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 149d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $20 149d
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $20 149d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 149d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January BUY No 95¢ $25 149d
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei BUY Yes 68¢ $10 149d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $50 149d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $40 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,776.27 · official $1,775.97 (match) · 665 history records