Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0572…6c5f politics 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
other 31% $0
world 12% $0
sports 8% +$1
crypto 8% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage126d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $113 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $116 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $116 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $113 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $113 12h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $113 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $113 18d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $113 26d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $113 26d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $113 33d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $113 35d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $113 36d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $114 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $114 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $114 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $114 39d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 41d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $114 42d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 46d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $114 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $115 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $115 66d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 68d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $115 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $115 72d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 74d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 74d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $116 77d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $116 78d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $116 87d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $116 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records