Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0571…c5cc other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$217 (+12%) realized +$169 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +199% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +170% what you keep after slip
Net edge+170%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,068
7 days+$1,068
14 days+$1,068
30 days+$1,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$888
sports 1% +$236
crypto 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+170.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +264.7% +230.0% 75% 75% +52.8%
≤30d 9 +235.5% +203.5% 78% 67% +52.2%
≤90d 11 +198.9% +170.4% 82% 64% +51.6%
all 11 +198.9% +170.4% 82% 64% +51.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +170.4% 64% +51.6%
10% +144.5% 64% +37.1%
15% +120.9% 64% +23.8%
20% +99.2% 45% +11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +199% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$208 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage71d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $250 $298 +$48 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $285 +$411 +144%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $71 +$457 +646%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 +$87 +67%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $378 +$170 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $253 +$125 +49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 +$236 +1367%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 20 $17 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? May 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $253 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $218 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $71 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $131 7h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $139 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $277 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $378 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? BUY No 98¢ $17 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 38d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.33 · official $298.33 (match) · 24 history records