Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x056f…e487 culture 488 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,994 (+8%) realized +$1,996 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%164W / 322L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 45% +$628
other 35% +$1,746
sports 18% −$479
crypto 2% −$79
world 0% −$15
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.3% +1.6% 75% 75% +25.7%
≤30d 15 -29.7% -36.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
≤90d 292 -39.0% -44.8% 22% 21% -11.3%
all 486 -13.6% -21.8% 34% 31% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 31% -3.7%
10% -29.3% 29% -12.9%
15% -36.1% 24% -21.3%
20% -42.4% 20% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$34 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1,996
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses164 / 322
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)486 / 488
History coverage151d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 54¢ 39¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Yes 47¢ 76¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the R May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m May 24 $9 −$9 -96%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 24 $6 −$5 -80%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 24 $2 −$1 -56%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10. May 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 May 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 23 $26 −$4 -15%
Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or May 23 $6 +$11 +164%
Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Canne May 23 $17 +$15 +89%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 21 $3 +$7 +226%
Will "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fest May 21 $4 +$1 +17%
Will "THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes F May 21 $1 −$1 -49%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $2 +$5 +257%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 18 $3 +$5 +184%
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the second highest grossing movie of this we May 12 $9 +$4 +45%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $46 −$44 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $222 −$49 -22%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 11 $57 +$14 +25%
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 10 $79 −$73 -92%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 10 $55 −$36 -66%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes T May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes T May 06 $41 −$32 -78%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $20 +$6 +30%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomat May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes T May 06 $11 −$9 -84%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 05 $135 −$133 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $1 −$1 -81%
Epstein client list released by June 30? May 05 $98 −$89 -91%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than May 05 $406 +$174 +43%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 04 $73 +$2 +2%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 04 $103 +$187 +181%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? May 04 $256 +$227 +89%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? May 04 $20 +$91 +454%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t May 03 $200 +$125 +63%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $109 −$88 -81%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 May 03 $360 −$351 -98%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m? May 03 $166 −$166 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 03 $42 −$40 -95%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m? May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $20 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $5 6h
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the R SELL No $0 27d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m SELL Yes $0 27d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m BUY Yes $2 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m BUY Yes $2 28d
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL No $1 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28d
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l SELL Yes $1 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10. BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10. BUY Yes $3 28d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m BUY Yes 10¢ $2 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m BUY Yes 10¢ $5 28d
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 60 on the R BUY No $1 28d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10. BUY Yes 46¢ $5 28d
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 17¢ $4 28d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 18¢ $2 28d
Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 BUY Yes $1 28d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film SELL Yes 98¢ $21 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.07 · official $38.07 (match) · 1739 history records