Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

05 0x056e…14af other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$90 (-23%) realized −$90 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown58%max

Avg bet$97per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-42.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-36.1%	-42.2%	25%	25%	+47.2%
≤30d	4	-36.1%	-42.2%	25%	25%	+47.2%
≤90d	4	-36.1%	-42.2%	25%	25%	+47.2%
all	4	-36.1%	-42.2%	25%	25%	+47.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.2%	25%	+47.2%
10%	-47.7%	25%	+33.1%
15%	-52.7%	25%	+20.2%
20%	-57.4%	25%	+8.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +63% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt +63% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$381 vs −$47 · ×8.17 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$90

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$97

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown58%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$245	+$381	+156%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$41	−$40	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	91¢	$626	52m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	34¢	$41	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	34¢	$102	1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$41	7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records