Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x056b…840f other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$149 (-43%) realized −$148 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$134
sports 32% +$16
world 15% −$51
tech 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -19.7% -27.4% 22% 22% -56.1%
≤30d 18 -19.7% -27.4% 22% 22% -56.1%
≤90d 18 -19.7% -27.4% 22% 22% -56.1%
all 18 -19.7% -27.4% 22% 22% -56.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 22% -56.1%
10% -34.3% 22% -60.3%
15% -40.7% 22% -64.1%
20% -46.5% 22% -67.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +261%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $10 +$11 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 11h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 11h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $37 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 43¢ $21 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.05 · official $39.05 (match) · 40 history records