Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x056b…8d85 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$34 (+7%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$54
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$47
sports 11% −$8
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.4% -2.0% 71% 65% +7.2%
≤30d 20 +6.8% -3.3% 70% 65% +7.3%
≤90d 20 +6.8% -3.3% 70% 65% +7.3%
all 22 -2.9% -12.1% 64% 59% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 59% +0.8%
10% -20.5% 50% -8.8%
15% -28.2% 45% -17.6%
20% -35.3% 23% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)22 / 33
History coverage357d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $33 +$18 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $63 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 +$21 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 +$21 +37%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$23 +54%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Concacaf Gold Cup: USA vs. Guatemala (To Advance) Jul 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Guatemala win the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup? Jul 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $65 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $63 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.22 · official $62.22 (match) · 59 history records