Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0568…0bcb other 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,699 (-1%) realized −$1,699 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%31W / 143L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,423per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days+$116
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$290
politics 37% −$127
sports 7% −$1,430
economics 5% −$9
world 2% +$106
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 47 +7.6% -2.7% 13% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 123 -8.8% -17.4% 6% 3% -10.6%
all 174 -0.6% -10.0% 18% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 11% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 10% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 10% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,746) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$21 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$1,699
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses31 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage157d
Avg bet$1,423
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $274 $274 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,984 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,352 −$4 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,393 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $63 +$119 +188%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,138 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $64 +$106 +165%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $3,200 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,687 −$5 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $460 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $511 +$1 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $3,436 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,948 −$3 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $6,350 −$7 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,370 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $68 +$66 +97%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,951 −$4 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $4,121 −$7 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $2,913 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $4,438 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $3,354 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 16 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $3,080 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $4,127 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,368 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,370 4h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,247 4h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,249 7h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 8h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 9h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 40h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,382 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,384 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $977 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $979 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,168 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,170 5d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 5d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $274 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,598 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,600 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,088 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,090 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.05 · official $274.05 (match) · 586 history records