Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0567…7f94 politics 32 markets active 5d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$3
other 32% −$2
tech 10% +$1
culture 9% −$1
sports 8% −$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage19d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $219 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $204 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 28 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $250 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 25 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 4d
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $103 4d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $202 4d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $202 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $233 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $233 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $242 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $242 4d
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $111 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 5d
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $156 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $156 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $155 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $155 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $159 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $159 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 6d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $179 6d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 6d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $244 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $247 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records