Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:34:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0563…0616 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate86%136W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +1.8% -7.9% 96% 1% -8.2%
≤30d 158 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 23% -9.7%
≤90d 158 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 23% -9.7%
all 158 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 23% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 23% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 14% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 8% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 53% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses136 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage17d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 97¢ 70¢ $17 $13 −$5 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $33 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$16 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.66 · official $10.15 · 347 history records